HIVE vs. STEEM in the post - Power Down era

in hive-126009 •  23 days ago  (edited)

Today, it's been a month to the Steem Hard Fork when SP power down period was reduced to only 4 weeks from the earlier 13 weeks.

So for all the Hivers whose SP were stuck there, it is now 100% liquid, if they actually intended to exit that platform. Most of them were already selling and swapping it for Hive for about 3 months now.

These were the times when there was excessive Sell pressure on STEEM and a Buy pull on HIVE. But depite this sell presure, STEEM was quite successful in maintaining its price over 20 cents throughout this period. Now after this sell pressure gets over, logically its prices should rise.

With a lot of SP now unlocked from the Steem platform, it has become a gold mine for curators with curation returns as high as 30% to 36% APR. This kind of RoI should result in increase in its prices as it will attract buyers.

On the other hand, I believe, total staking on HIVE must have increased during this period. So the RoI on HP is somewhere between 15%-20% APR only.

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Source: https://steemd.com/Source: https://hiveblocks.com/

But if we check the above data, we don't find much difference. Out of 385.8M STEEM, only 144.3M STEEM are powered up. Similarly, 137.3M HIVE are powered up out of total 380.5M HIVE.

HIVE prices didn't see any significant rise despite of continuous buying / swapping with STEEM.

So now that buying phase is almost over, will it be possible for HIVE to hold to its 25-26 cent level in the short to mid term? Or will STEEM prices jump to a new high of this year in the near future?

These are the questions I was pondering over for a week now. But now I don't think, any of these facts are going to make any significant impact on both assets' prices. They have essentially parted their ways now and will go their own way!

What do you think? Will STEEM rise and HIVE fall in the near short term?

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Why with the same total supply and same amount powered up does Steem has a 2x better Apr ? I do not get it 🧐

Steemit used to sell a lot of STEEM to finance its operations. It appears that JS is not financing operations by selling STEEM, so the selling pressure has eased. On the other hand, on Hive, witnesses sell HIVE to finance their operations & development. With the temporary conversion of STEEM->HIVE behind us, we could see a continued decline in the price of HIVE. As for the price of STEEM, it is likely to increase unless the witnesses in Steem and Steemit start financing their operations again by selling STEEM.

I was wondering the same too.

I think, more than the vested funds, it's "its usage" aka activity level that decides the reward pool allocation. I guess, it was after Steemauto, the auto-voting tool on Steem, decided to withdraw support from Steem, the voting activity reduced drastically. And that suddenly increased curation rewards for manual curators.

Although Steem Witnesses quickly put up a copy of SteemAuto, it has limited features. And since most of the people had lost interest in Steem and were already powering down, they had no interest in participating by signing in to a new tool. Some users were inactive for months but their voting was active but Steeauto's dicontinuation stopped that too. This along with conversion of Vest into liquid STEEM probably contributed to a good RoI for Steem curators. Dunno, how long that will last!

The problem with Steem is hardly any community engagement and the banning of posts by Sun. Sun can easily play with his billions and pump the price for a while but Steem has turned into a ghost town of bots.

I agree but I'm asking from the view of risk-reward benefit in the short term.

You might make out better converting steem to bitcoin.

Agree

Let us think about Steem as just a token. Detach from community. If JS can just continue to mine steem, play with it, and the proxy comnunity goes along, steem can be still a viable token for trading.

As Admiral Ackbar would say... "It's a trap!"

Interesting topic with interesting thoughts...

I have asked the same question a week ago about selling and buying pressure... I'm looking on the price in two ways... in the short-term and long-term...

Steem looks like an interesting, but I'm afraid that it is more short-term positioning... If I understood right, there are no downvotes, bidbots are running around as crazy, it a money-printing machine... So, it will maybe go up in price because of the % hype... and ROI...

On the other side, the Hive has the community, and it's working on growing that community even more, which gives me a high hopes about its value for the long-term...

Yes, I too feel that STEEM is looking good for now but it's only for a short term. Hive is investing more in its development through its HPS and community is also trying its best to get the word out, so HIVE will obviously become more valuable in long term.

Im not done buying....hopefully steem goes up before i get out finish

Yes, it will probably moon soon. You will get a good deal for swapping HIVE 🙂

I think the ecosystems are going to start to split and find their own ways now I do think steem will rise with the hive swap sell pressure getting less and less! I think that they will also see more people grabbing up the inflation over time it’s still a big brand in crypto! It might seem like a lot of liquid stake but as new users come in it starts to get locked away again

Same with hive and the features of burning and people wanting more stake I can only see it moving up, lots of stake is also lost eveye year as people lose their accounts

Yeah, Steem is a huge brand now. Being the pioneer in socila media blockchain space, it can be said as bitcoin of social blockchains ;) Steemit also has a good SEO traffic to its credit.

But just as you said, new users will come and stake their STEEM, curation rewards' rate will decline gradually.

With more developmental activities going on on Hive, it is bound to appreciate in value in near future. No doubt, HIVE has more porential than STEEM in the long run.

To be able to obser intrinsic values of both platforms, people still need some time. There are some people waiting for a right time or promising signal to direct their way or take position by using any one of them. As we are in the ecosystem, we know what is the reality but it's not the same for each person with investment.

That's a good reasoning. It's the nature of humans to wait, watch and take some time to understand & decide. Not everyone jumps at some news or opportunity.

Hive↔️Steem can be good for both blockchain, their future dynamics and rivalries for market can be a positive driving force for traders to get notice to play on both tokens.

That's a good way to look at it. Yes, competition forces everyone to make better products and users gets the benefit out of it.

Correct👍🏼

Even with 100% ROI, I wouldn't hold even 1 STEEM in my account. They are not afraid of stealing funds. They did once. They will steal again.
Thieves are always thieves.

Totally agree, they are very unpredictable and couldn't even explain their own actions when questioned.

But you would agree that shutting down SteemAuto has given an unfair advantage to the curators there. You probably knew that an alternative auto voting system will soon come up after discontinuing SteemAuto. But anyway, it was a strong sign for those who were still undecided / lazy to move to Hive.

P.S.:
Would you also withdraw your support from SteemLogin?

I'm not involved in Steemlogin. Everything on Steem is shady. If you are still there, be careful.
I contributed to Steemconnect and Steemlogin is just a copy and that's the reason my name is there.

OMG, that's so scary and criminal of them to use your credibility without your consent. Thanks for alerting me!

I imagine Steem will increase in value, hive will decrease, just because of the relative sell and buy pressure.

I noticed Exyle has been buying more Steem - and he's made a lot of sound investment decisions in the past.

It will be interested to see where the relative prices go - I don't necessarily think the success of one will mean the decline of the other either!

Posted Using LeoFinance

Yes, I too noticed about Exyle. Some other large accounts too haven't initiated the power down, implying they want to keep invested there. But even though it may give you good return in the end, I don't categorize it as a sound investment. It's a fact that there is more potential for gain with increased risk. Not everyone can take that gamble. But to each his own.

I concur with your thought of success of one does not imply the decline of the other. It's a large space and each one can play their own game in this space. At the end, projects will be evaluated with what they have achieved irrespective of the other.